Within hours of the result Prime Minister David Cameron, who was near to tears, announced he will stand down as Prime Minister after the Conservative Party elects a successor in the autumn. That could be Boris Johnson, the former Mayor of London who visited the Kurdistan Region last year and was photographed holding an AK47 with the Peshmerga.
Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn immediately defended his position as a cautious advocate of remaining in the EU but may soon face a motion of no confidence by Labour MPs who feel he did too little to persuade Labour voters to back the party line. About a third of Labour voters backed Brexit and that was more than enough to tip the balance in a referendum where the two positions were just over a million voters apart.
Corbyn does not bear all responsibility for this but it happened on his watch and he could be gone within days. Quite who could take over from him is unknown, but they would have to reach out to core Labour voters who rebelled against mass migration from the EU as a factor in their progressive impoverishment.
The sudden crisis has unknown consequences for the integrity of the UK given that England and Wales voted to leave while Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to stay. The Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon says a second referendum on Scottish independence is highly likely although it is far from clear how an independent Scotland could join the EU. That could be resisted by Spain which would worry about setting a precedent for an independent Catalonia. And there would be the complex question of what currency Scotland could adopt and how to police its new border with a non-EU country.
The only land border between the UK and the EU is between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic. Throughout the war conducted by the IRA against the British State the border was heavily controlled and militarised. It no longer exists in anything but name. The Irish Republican Party, Sinn Fein, once the political wing of the IRA, has begun campaigning for a border poll to achieve Irish unity in the EU. That is problematic for the Protestant majority in Northern Ireland, and many in the south.
Furthermore, the eventual exit of the UK will deprive the EU of its second biggest contributor and could encourage forces in other European countries that also want to leave the EU.
The process of possibly amicable divorce between the UK and the EU is now beginning and could take several years. The UK is the fifth largest economy in the world and a major fact in the European space but its leaders will not want a deal on trade that helps spread the British contagion.
The Chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee, Crispin Blunt MP, said that Brexit "will not change the UK’s formal status in other key global and regional alliances but swift action by the Government and Foreign and Commonwealth Office is essential to open up new opportunities for the UK to redefine its international role."
He added that the Committee had already warned that the Foreign and Commonwealth Office [FCO] is severely short of resources but "this shortage is now a crisis. The FCO needs to be equipped to reassert its leading role in foreign policy-making so that Britain can take its place on the world stage. Significantly boosting the capacity of the FCO will send a strong signal of the UK’s commitment to an outward-looking, globally engaged foreign policy."
As for the UK's approach to Iraq and Kurdistan, do not expect any immediate change. The UK remains the fifth largest defence spender in the world and a clear enemy of Daesh [Islamic State]. The role of Iraq and Kurdistan in containing and defeating Daesh is a major priority regardless of EU membership. The efficiency of the Peshmerga counts for a great deal although more needs to be done by Britain to support them.
Inevitably, Brexit will dominate politics and administration for a long time. Only a few hours have elapsed since the shock result which was greeted by a run on the pound and may yet cause a black hole in public finances.
A gulf between the established parties and many of their voters has been exposed but what that means in practice is less clear. The British Parliament returns next Monday to hear a substantial report from the Prime Minister of his discussions this weekend with EU leaders. Finding the new normal in British politics is now the name of the game. A general election in the autumn is also highly probable.
from Rudaw http://ift.tt/294tAym
via Defense News
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