Coalitions, Collisions and the way forward.
Article Detail:
Keeping track of the geopolitical developments pertaining to events occurring between Nations
We need to assess the impact of changing relations and increase the scope of our maneuvering, look for pragmatic approaches and preserve our strategic objectives.
US-China-Russia and its impact for India:
Until yesterday there has been a kind of relation between US-Russia that can be best described as a brink of war. The tensions over Syria, turkey and NATO vs Russian expansions, deployment of troops, cyber-attack allegations, Military drills, Hot statements all has come to an extent which made people guess are we about to see a US-Russia collision? However with Trump as president and his pro-Russian stance, to an extent tensions have reduced. The future course would depend according to the Trump’s policies and Russian ambitions.
Earlier under the context of souring Russian-American relation, we have seen bolder moves by Russia allying with China on one hand and offering support to the groups opposing US on the other.
The current day scenario seems that the growing ties between US-Russia may convince Russia to remain neutral in a few areas of US’s interest.
Relation of US with China is escalating as a trade conflict as well as military.
It all begun with the claim over SCS region, where Japan and China raised their claim upon Senkaku Islands. The battle ready deployments in pacific and the blow hot blow cold relations of US with other nations in the SCS region has taken a slow and passive escalation, with a widening gap between US and China.
Though Trump has so far shown interest in mending ties with Russia, he has opened up a more serious issue than SCS with China through his comments on Taiwan’s sovereignty. This has led to a different dimension of US-China rivalry, from earlier dimension of US-Russia.
Certainly there are interesting times ahead, to see which course the relations move.
Any action by Chinese towards Taiwan (which looks more or less imminent) shall bring a serious war with US. The improved relation between US and Russia benefits us, and the Action of US against also China benefits us.
We need to add weight to our purchases from Russia by forming a group with Vietnam, Mongolia and other Chinese & Pakistani rivals, wherever there is a scope for.
Getting Vietnam-Russia closer should be an area we should explore.
Further we have to increase trade relation in other areas with Russia like in Civilian Aircraft manufacture through Make in India, export of Food, Pharmaceuticals to Russia, electronics hub under make in India etc.,
Russia-Japan-China and its impact for India:
There have been efforts by Japan to mend its relations with Russia; however the relations have been more or less dormant or stale between Russia and Japan.
On the other hand Japan-China relations have worsened, which have proportionately driven India and Japan Closer. Still there is a lag from Japan in being proactive in reaching out to other neutral Nations and Japan not opening up for tech sharing with India.
If the relation between Japan and Russia improves it will be a good benefit for India.
Hence India has to employ a pragmatic approach to find nations having defence needs and offer them products at a competitive price by producing through Make-In-India. Increasing the market and lowering the cost through partnership of Russia benefits both Russia and India.
We can explore similar model replacing Russia with Japan for selling products (not necessarily Defence related) to Australia, SA, Vietnam and EU countries.
If we explore adding Japan in Chabahar, along with earlier stated approach of
Selling Russian weapons through Make-in-India to Iran or making a grouped (Iran, India, Vietnam, Mongolia, Afghanistan and Bangladesh) purchase of Russian weapons through Make-In-India, or in the least become hub for MRO. Then it will get Japan-Russia-India-Iran-Mongolia-Vietnam closer and increase difference between Iran -Pakistan & Russia – China
Russia-China-Pakistan-Afghanistan and its impact for India
Off late the Russian interest in Pakistan has turned the relation with Afghanistan in a bad direction.
Afghan and Chinese relation on other hand were good earlier, but turned sour after recent decision of Russia-China-Pakistan to hold talks with Taliban
This is one of such area where India has multiple things at stake, the role played by Russia in accordance to China & Pakistan brings more difference between Afghan – Russia, and India – Russia as well. Linking of Transit route from Chabahar to Afghanistan, Russia has to be strengthened and adding Mongolia may have some effect.
The Role US play and the role Russia assumes will decide the direction of the future here.
India has to find ways to increase the influence upon Russia to abstain from pursuing policies which bear negative impacts to our strategic goals in this Area.
Adding weight of Japan in Chabahar, and adding weight of US in Afghanistan may change the dynamics, if in case Russia doesn’t consider our concerns.
The way ahead
India has to look for turning the ‘Excellent’ & ‘Good’ relation cases into Business bondings
And must focus on bringing the Nations in the ‘Neutral’ sphere on its side of Good
Wherever there is a ‘Good’ or ‘Excellent’ case as per our Rival we need impact that equation by leveraging the strength from other Nations.
We need to expand our strategic and business presence and should mature into a market of grouped purchases. For example on deals related to Gun’s/Rifles we could increase the number by grouping and at the same time lower the cost or gain manufacturing opportunity. By getting the Nations by our side we can convert ‘neutral’ case to ‘good’ or may be bring the ‘good’ of our rival to ‘neutral’
A pragmatic approach is the need of the day to steer through the tough tides we are facing in geopolitics where we gain in Finance, Diplomacy and Military.
Important of all, India has to make a strategy to utilize the opportunities that may be coming up with changing geopolitical situations
The following table is a purely my own view/perception of the relations, which are open to the choice of readers to agree, disagree modify or debate. Further with change of governments in UK/Germany/Australia/France in future these relations or perceptions may further change.
However, the point I wish to present through this below model is to
– Focus improving our gap areas
– Work with the relations not just to justify our cause, but also employ a long term bonding
– Expose the realities of terrorism to Nations favouring our rivals
– Work to increase dividends from Nations that have a rival common with us
– Make an impact on those Nations highly favouring our rivals to lower down to neutral
– Exploit the gaps where our rivals couldn’t make any impact
This article is written by Karthik Gunda exclusively for defence update
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