Six months after President Donald Trump bolted from a nuclear deal on Iran, the United States from Monday will try to strangle the country's economy with sweeping sanctions, but doubts abound on how effective the campaign will be.
The United States has vowed to end all sales of Iranian oil, the country's crucial export, as well as international banking transactions, snapping back sanctions lifted by Trump's predecessor as US president, Barack Obama.
But much has changed since the Obama administration targeted Iran's economy in 2012. Obama won broad, if at times begrudging, international support as he set a goal of bringing Iran to the table to end its nuclear program.
Iran -- led by a more moderate president, Hassan Rouhani -- has according to UN inspectors abided by the 2015 agreement which is still supported by European powers and Russia and China, which all signed the nuclear deal.
"This is not 2012 when the world was united behind sanctions against Iran. This is the Trump administration trying to force the rest of the world to go along with a policy that most countries do not accept," said Barbara Slavin, an Iran expert at the Washington-based Atlantic Council.
"The US has had some success in terms of frightening away major corporations. The sanctions hurt a lot. But Iran is still going to be able to sell oil," especially to China, she said.
The United States has accepted that it will need to issue waivers to countries that do not fully stop buying Iranian oil, with friends of the United States such as India and South Korea looking for sanctions exemptions, and Tehran may keep up clandestine sales.
The European Union has gone so far as to protect businesses that operate in Iran. It has announced plans for a legal framework through which firms can skirt US sanctions, although few major corporations have been eager to risk the wrath of penalties in the world's largest economy.
- US objective in question -
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has issued a list of demands for Iran that go well beyond the nuclear program that was the focus of Obama's deal.
He wants the Shiite clerical regime to withdraw from war-ravaged Syria, where it is a critical ally of President Bashar al-Assad, as well as to end longstanding support to regional militant movements Hezbollah and Hamas.
Pompeo has also insisted Iran cut off backing for Yemen's Huthi rebels who are facing a US-backed air campaign led by Saudi Arabia.
In a recent tweet Pompeo crowed that the International Monetary Fund is predicting a 3.6 percent contraction of Iran's economy next year.
"That's what happens when the ruling regime steals from its people and invests in Assad -- instead of creating jobs for Iranians, they ruin the economy," he said.
But experts see no rapid turnaround from Iran's leaders -- especially the military and clerical establishments, for whom resistance to the United States has been an article of faith since the 1979 Islamic revolution overthrew the pro-US shah.
"It's basically magical thinking. The Iranians have been able to continue their support to regional proxies and allies for 40 years despite economic pressure," said Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group.
He said the Trump administration believed that a constrained, struggling Iran would see its influence erode. But the final goal, he said, was unclear.
"I think the end-game depends on who you're asking. The president himself is interested in having a broader, better deal with the Iranians, but I believe that most of his national security team are interested in either destabilizing Iran or assuring a regime change in Tehran," Vaez said.
Trump's national security advisor, John Bolton, is a longstanding hawk with ties to Iran's armed, exiled opposition.
- North Korea model? -
One European diplomat believed Trump was following his playbook on North Korea, with which he is negotiating only a year after threatening "fire and fury."
"It's the same war plan as with Kim Jong Un and North Korea -- sanctions, maximum pressure and then ready to negotiate," he said.
The United States says it is exempting humanitarian goods from the sanctions, although Europeans say they have received no guidance on how to avoid penalties.
Another Western diplomat, speaking to AFP on condition of anonymity, said that Iran was more dependent on the outside world than the country's conservatives would like to think.
"In truth there are starts of a panic as there's beginning to be a shortage of medicine. We're heading back to the old war economy, which is tightly controlled."
Complicating Trump's effort, Saudi Arabia -- Iran's regional rival which has long pressed Washington to get tough -- is increasingly unpopular after the murder of a journalist, Jamal Khashoggi, in the kingdom's Istanbul consulate.
But Tehran has been winning few friends, with France and Denmark recently accusing the clerical state's intelligence agencies of plotting to attack Iranian opponents in Europe.
Iran nuclear deal: from US walkout to fresh sanctions
Tehran (AFP) Nov 2, 2018 - The United States last May quit the landmark 2015 Iran nuclear deal aimed at halting Tehran's nuclear ambitions.
It reimposed a first wave of sanctions on the Islamic republic in August and is due to pass the remaining tranche on November 5 targeting its crucial oil industry and central bank.
Here are the key developments since that dramatic walkout:
- US quits -
President Donald Trump on May 8 pulls the United States out of the hard-won nuclear pact between world powers and Iran.
"The Iran deal is defective at its core," he says.
The move provides for the reinstatement of US sanctions on Iran and companies with ties to the Islamic republic.
Washington warns other countries to also end trade and investment in Iran and stop buying its oil, or face punitive measures.
It says sanctions will take effect immediately for new contracts and gives foreign companies an additional 90 to 180 days to end existing trade with Iran.
But other parties to the deal -- Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China -- insist Iran has abided by its commitments and say they are determined to save the agreement.
- Enrichment threats -
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani warns Tehran could halt the curbs it agreed in the deal and restart increased uranium enrichment "without limit", looking to the remaining parties to save the accord.
Washington warns on May 21 that Iran will be hit with the "strongest sanctions in history" unless it capitulates to a series of demands aimed at curbing its missile programme and interventions around the Middle East.
- Five powers back deal -
A top US official says on July 2 that Washington is determined to force Iran to change behaviour by cutting its oil exports to zero, confident the world has enough spare oil capacity to cope.
On July 6, Tehran's five remaining partners in the nuclear accord vow to back "the continuation of Iran's exports of oil and gas".
On July 16, EU countries reject the US demand that they economically isolate Tehran and they move to give European firms legal cover to operate in Iran.
But the next day European sources say the US has dismissed requests to spare its firms from sanctions penalties.
- War of words -
On July 22, Rouhani warns the United States that any conflict with Iran would be the "mother of all wars".
Trump responds with an all-caps Twitter tirade telling him to stop making threats "OR YOU WILL SUFFER CONSEQUENCES".
On July 30, however, Trump says he is ready to meet Iranian leaders "anytime they want" and promises "no preconditions".
- Sanctions, again -
On August 7, Washington reimposes a first set of sanctions on Iran, described by Trump as the "most biting ever".
They involve freezing financial transactions and imports of raw materials, and penalties on purchases in the car and commercial aviation sectors.
Within hours German carmaker Daimler says it is halting its activities in Iran. On August 20, Iran's oil minister announces French energy giant Total is quitting its multi-billion dollar gas project in the country.
Several major international companies follow suit.
- European evasion -
The European Union on September 25 announces plans to preserve business with Tehran and evade the new US sanctions.
A "legal entity" will allow businesses to transfer money without coming under Washington's scanner, foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini says, although analysts remain highly sceptical that private firms will be willing to risk US penalties by using it.
- Court confrontation -
The International Court of Justice (ICJ), the UN's top court, orders the United States on October 3 to lift sanctions on humanitarian goods for Iran, saying they breached a 1955 friendship treaty between the two countries.
The following day, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo says Washington is terminating the treaty. There have been no diplomatic relations between the rivals since 1980.
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EU condemns Denmark attack plot, urges support for Iran deal
Brussels (AFP) Oct 31, 2018
The EU on Wednesday condemned a foiled "attack" in Denmark blamed on Tehran but insisted the incident should not undermine Europe's support for the beleaguered Iran nuclear deal. Copenhagen recalled its ambassador to Tehran for consultations after Danish intelligence accused Iran of planning an attack in Denmark against three Iranians - an allegation denied by the Islamic republic. Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen said it was "totally unacceptable" for Iran to plan such an attack, whi ... read more
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