North Korea hasn't launched a satellite since February 2016, and no North Korean satellite has ever functioned properly in orbit. Space analysts have been waiting a long time for another launch attempt, but the only rockets flying from North Korea in recent years have been ballistic missile tests.
North Korea has upgraded the infrastructure at its Sohae spaceport and recently conducted an engine test there. Clearly, the stage is set for more activity in the future. But exactly how and when North Korea will continue its space program is a mystery.
One explanation for the lack of activity in recent times is diplomacy. North Korea has been heavily engaged in summitry and other forms of negotiations, including the widely-reported meetings with US President Donald Trump.
Putting the space programme on pause during this time could be seen as a gesture of peace, given the controversy generated by every North Korean satellite launch. It also gives North Korea the option of staging a satellite launch as a political gesture when negotiations break down.
But there could also be technical reasons. As previously noted, North Korea has never managed to get any of its satellites to work. None have sent telemetry to Earth. This surely indicates some serious problems with the design and manufacturing of the satellites. It's also possible that North Korea's satellites experienced severe damage due to vibrational and acoustic forces during launch.
At least one payload fairing from a North Korean satellite launch has been retrieved by foreign forces. Observers noted that the fairing lacked the sort of acoustic baffles that could protect a satellite from damage during launch.
Some cynics suggested that the lack of baffles (and the lack of satellite telemetry) meant that the purported satellite launch was simply a scam. This analyst does not believe this. The lack of baffles was probably an attempt to reduce the weight of the launch vehicle, which was fairly modest in its capabilities.
North Korea is believed to be developing a new type of satellite launch vehicle, more powerful than the Unha-3 rockets used in recent satellite launches. This would allow larger and heavier satellites to be lofted. Presumably, it would also allow more provision for baffles and other features to protect a satellite during launch. The recent expansion of launch support towers supports the theory that a larger type of rocket is planned for Sohae in the future.
It's also possible that North Korea is trying to bolster its skills in manufacturing satellites. Such activities are less easy to detect with spy satellites, and probably difficult to discern through other means. To ensure a successful launch, it's possible that North Korea will scale back the complexity of its next satellite.
This could mean that the first talking North Korean satellite could be little more than a modern Sputnik, simply playing patriotic songs to Earth. North Korea tried that with their first satellite launch attempt, and they could try it again. Once that is shown to work, they can try for something more complex, like the sort of Earth-observation satellites they have tried to launch in the past.
At the time of writing, North Korea is engaged in an intensive form of brinkmanship in its diplomacy, challenging the USA to strike a deal for peace before the end of the year. Pragmatists would reasonably suggest that this won't happen.
After that, North Korea could decide to escalate its actions as a response to the breakdown of diplomacy. Noises from official North Korean channels have hinted at ballistic missile tests, and that seems highly probable. But a satellite launch would fit nicely into any new phase of escalation.
It seems likely that the geostrategic climate for another North Korean satellite launch will become more favourable in the near future. But this does not guarantee that a launch will take place any time soon.
Dr Morris Jones is an Australian space analyst who has written for SpaceDaily.com since 1999. Email morrisjonesNOSPAMhotmail.com. Replace NOSPAM with @ to send email.
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Trump warns Kim has 'everything' to lose through hostility
Washington (AFP) Dec 8, 2019
President Donald Trump warned Sunday that North Korea's Kim Jong Un had "everything" to lose through hostility towards the United States, after Pyongyang said it had carried out a major new weapons test. "Kim Jong Un is too smart and has far too much to lose, everything actually, if he acts in a hostile way," Trump tweeted in response to the unspecified test at the Sohae space launch center. The announcement of Saturday's test came just hours after Trump said he would be "surprised" by any hosti ... read more
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