From mobilising its allies in the Middle East to blocking shipping in a strategic waterway or even launching a cyber attack far beyond its borders, Iran has no shortage of options to avenge the killing of top commander Qasem Soleimani by its arch foe the United States.
Tehran's clerical leadership promised "severe vengeance... in the right place and time," but is nonetheless expected to carefully weigh the dangers of retaliation to a regime that has been in place since the ousting of the pro-American shah in 1979.
"We can't know whether the Iranians will decide that a drastic escalation and retaliation is the best tactic, or whether they go for a measured, perhaps even non-violent response," Heiko Wimmen, project director of the International Crisis Group (ICG) for Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, told AFP.
Iran learned the merits of asymmetric warfare -- fighting a power with greater military might than your own -- in the deadly 1980-1988 war against Iraq. Its strong influence in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and beyond means it has several levers against the US presence in the region.
Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution noted that in the past Tehran "has absorbed major blows... without immediately yielding to temptation to strike back in some kind of reckless fashion," and revenge may not come right away.
Here are the main options Iran might consider to avenge the death of a man who was commander of the Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guards and masterminded its operations across the Middle East.
- Proxies sow trouble -
Throughout the region, Iran backs forces with the potential to cause havoc, from Huthi rebels in Yemen and Shia militias in Iraq to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Iraq is set to be the key battleground. Pro-Iranian Shia militias could work to drive US forces out of Iraq and also destabilise the Iraqi government to create a new domestic political crisis.
"I suspect there will be a lot of pressure on the US military presence now in Iraq," said Alex Vatanka of the Washington-based Middle East Institute, adding a pullout would be a "major strategic loss for the United States in the Middle East."
Elsewhere, Iranian proxies could torpedo hopes of peace in Yemen, while Hezbollah could stir up trouble in Lebanon or launch an attack on Israel to the south.
"Israel is a target as well. Iran sees Israel as just an extension of the United States," said Matt Levitt, director of the Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence at the Washington Institute.
- Cyber attack -
A more subtle step would be for Iran to launch a cyber attack.
Analysts believe Tehran has stepped up its capacity to attack key Western cyber infrastructure and has even built up a so-called "cyber army" that pledges allegiance to the Islamic Republic.
Loic Guezo, head of French information security group Clusif, said Iran's cyber attacks above all sought to damage industrial targets such as dams or power stations.
"What is feared here is the impact on society -- electricity cuts, poisoning, gas leaks, explosions, transport chaos and hospitals," he told AFP.
- Oil blockade -
Oil prices initially soared more than four percent on fears that Soleimani's killing could lead to disruption of oil supplies from the Middle East. A major fear is that Iran could block shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most congested transit points.
Its Western foes have accused Iran of being behind a major attack on Saudi oil installations and Iran has in recent months also repeatedly seized tankers operating in the Gulf.
"Iran has shown that it can hit ships and block ships," said Jean Charles Brisard, head of the Centre for Analysis of Terrorism in France. "But is a blockade conceivable?" he asked.
- Military strike -
The most apocalyptic scenario would be a military strike by Iran using its ballistic missile arsenal against US, Israeli or Saudi interests in the region, a move that would risk prompting an all-out regional conflict.
"The worst-case scenario is a 1914 moment," said Naysan Rafati, ICG's senior Iran analyst, envisioning clashes between the US and its allies on one side and Iran and its proxies on the other in Syria, Yemen or Iraq.
However Rafati said Iran was unlikely to attack US soil, and analysts believe whatever action Tehran takes will not jeopardise its survival.
"The basic assumption still is that both the US and Iran want the other to back down rather than direct war," Wimmen said.
Vatanka said the Iranian leadership was "opportunistic" not "suicidal", adding: "If there's an opportunity that they can take advantage of, they will."
Iran vows revenge after US kills top general in Baghdad strike
Baghdad (AFP) Jan 3, 2020 - A furious Iran threatened to avenge a US drone strike that killed a top Iranian commander in Baghdad on Friday, raising fears of a wider regional conflict between the arch-foes.
The Pentagon said US President Donald Trump had ordered Qasem Soleimani's targeted killing after a pro-Iran mob this week laid siege to the American embassy in the Iraqi capital, throwing rocks and setting fires.
Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei swiftly promised "severe revenge" for the death of military mastermind Soleimani, the biggest escalation yet in a feared proxy war between Iran and the US on Iraqi soil.
Iran's allies from Lebanon-based Hezbollah to Syria's President Bashar al-Assad condemned Soleimani's death, while many capitals voiced concern and UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres warned that the "world cannot afford" another Gulf war.
Tens of thousands took to the streets of Tehran chanting "Death to America" and holding up posters of Soleimani, who was widely admired in the Islamic republic.
Iran's Supreme National Security Council vowed that "these criminals will face severe vengeance... in the right place and time".
Trump tweeted a picture of an American flag with no comment, then followed up by declaring Soleimani should have been killed "many years ago".
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Soleimani had been planning an "imminent" attack "that would have put dozens if not hundreds of American lives at risk".
The US embassy in Baghdad urged all American citizens to leave Iraq "immediately" and US nationals working at southern oil fields were being evacuated, Iraq's petrol ministry said.
Early Friday, a precision drone strike struck two cars belonging to Iraq's Hashed al-Shaabi, a paramilitary force with close ties to Iran, as they drove away from Baghdad International Airport.
Hours later, Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps announced Soleimani, 62, who headed its Quds Force foreign operations arm, "was martyred in an attack by America".
- 'Threat for Iraqis' -
It said five Guards were killed in total as well as five members of the Hashed, which confirmed its deputy chief Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis was among the dead.
Soleimani also served as Iran's pointman on Iraq, visiting the country in times of turmoil.
Khamenei swiftly named Quds Force number two Esmail Qaani to replace him.
Muhandis was the Hashed's deputy chief, but was widely recognised as the real shot-caller within the group.
Ceremonies to mourn both men will be held on Saturday, a day before Iraq's parliament is set to hold an emergency meeting.
A leading Hashed member, Hadi al-Ameri, urged lawmakers "to take a bold decision to oust foreign troops from Iraq, because their presence has become a threat for Iraqis".
Some 5,200 US troops are stationed across the country, and a US defence official told AFP that some additional forces had arrived in recent hours to boost security at the American embassy.
- 'Dangerous escalation' -
Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif slammed the US strike as "extremely dangerous and a foolish escalation," as Khamenei declared three days of mourning.
Iraqi prime minister Adel Abdel Mahdi said the strike was a "flagrant violation" of a security accord with the US, warning it would "spark a devastating war in Iraq".
And Iraqi President Barham Saleh called for "restraint" -- an appeal echoed by alarmed foreign governments.
But paramilitary figures in Iraq including US-blacklisted Qais al-Khazali and militiaman-turned-politician Moqtada Sadr called on their fighters to "be ready".
And in Lebanon, the leader of the Tehran-backed Shiite movement Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, warned of "punishment for these criminal assassins".
As fears of a regional conflagration grew, Yemen's pro-Tehran Huthi rebels -- who have launched a string of missile attacks on Iran's regional rival Saudi Arabia -- called for "swift reprisals".
But there were daring celebrations in Baghdad's Tahrir Square, the epicentre of a three-month-old protest movement that has slammed the Iraqi government as corrupt and beholden to Tehran.
"Oh Qasem Soleimani, this is a divine victory," demonstrators chanted as some danced in the streets.
And Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu praised Trump "for acting swiftly, forcefully and decisively," as the Jewish state braced itself for possible reprisal attacks.
- 'Decapitation strike' -
Analysts said the strike -- which sent world oil prices soaring -- would be a game-changer in the tensions between Iran and the US.
"Trump changed the rules -- he wanted (Soleimani) eliminated," said Ramzy Mardini, a researcher at the US Institute of Peace.
Phillip Smyth, a US-based specialist in Shiite armed groups, described the killing as "the most major decapitation strike that the US has ever pulled off".
He told AFP it would have "bigger" ramifications than the 2011 US operation that killed Al-Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden and the 2019 American raid that killed Islamic State group Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.
Ties between the US and Iran have deteriorated markedly since Washington abandoned a landmark nuclear deal with Tehran in 2018 and reimposed crippling sanctions.
On Tuesday, a mob of Hashed supporters surrounded the US embassy, angered by American air strikes that killed 25 fighters from the network's hardline Iran-backed Kataeb Hezbollah faction.
The US had acted in response to a rocket attack days earlier that killed an American contractor working in Iraq.
Trump had blamed Iran for the embassy siege and rocket attacks, saying: "They will pay a very BIG PRICE! This is not a Warning, it is a Threat."
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Khamenei condemns US, warns Iran will confront threats
Tehran (AFP) Jan 1, 2020
Iran's supreme leader Wednesday strongly condemned deadly US strikes on Iraq and warned his country was ready to confront threats after US President Donald Trump issued one against the Islamic republic. "I and the government and the nation of Iran strongly condemn this American crime," Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said in a speech broadcast on state television. They were his first remarks since Sunday's deadly US strikes on the Hashed al-Shaabi paramilitary network in western Iraq. The United Stat ... read more
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